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Modeling the Long-Run Learning Impact of the COVID-19.pdf (893.18 kB)

Modeling the Long-Run Learning Impact of the COVID-19 Learning Shock: Actions to (More Than) Mitigate Loss

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posted on 2023-07-18, 14:19 authored by RISE AdminRISE Admin, Michelle Kaffenberger
This note uses a calibrated model with a “pedagogical production function” (Kaffenberger and Pritchett, 2020) to estimate the potential long-term losses to children’s learning from the temporary shock of school closures related to COVID-19. The model shows that without mitigation, children could lose more than a year’s worth of learning even from a three-month school closure as the short-term losses continue to compound after children return to school. Turning to mitigation strategies, the note examines the long-term effects of two strategies, finding that with some mitigation efforts education systems could come back from the crisis stronger than before.

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